Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.374181 0.435453 0.503225 0.583693 0.676586 0.780415 0.905238
2025-03-16 0.260357 0.338769 0.435118 0.561991 0.724455 0.925315 1.192341
2025-03-23 0.220610 0.310744 0.430062 0.599068 0.831789 1.140461 1.580470
2025-03-30 0.177591 0.267161 0.393267 0.582958 0.860213 1.249692 1.837371
2025-04-06 0.145508 0.231863 0.360156 0.563502 0.876478 1.338496 2.070620
2025-04-13 0.121417 0.203786 0.332221 0.545584 0.889525 1.420227 2.298660
2025-04-20 0.107196 0.188589 0.321185 0.551001 0.937219 1.557306 2.624563
2025-04-27 0.099863 0.183409 0.325055 0.580217 1.025543 1.766711 3.088177
2025-05-04 0.091594 0.175212 0.322428 0.597454 1.094820 1.951015 3.528877
2025-05-11 0.082856 0.164782 0.314301 0.603475 1.144382 2.105794 3.933841
2025-05-18 0.074171 0.153121 0.302265 0.600437 1.176450 2.231942 4.299489
2025-05-25 0.066100 0.141461 0.288629 0.592374 1.197575 2.339371 4.640477
2025-06-01 0.059592 0.132230 0.278883 0.591379 1.233555 2.480876 5.066864
2025-06-08 0.051845 0.119314 0.260176 0.570114 1.227086 2.540864 5.342864
2025-06-15 0.050428 0.119904 0.269359 0.607746 1.345080 2.858204 6.167437
2025-06-22 0.044611 0.109741 0.254282 0.591412 1.347326 2.940689 6.517090
2025-06-29 0.039287 0.099916 0.238627 0.571682 1.339561 3.000864 6.825002
2025-07-06 0.034744 0.091274 0.224496 0.553511 1.332855 3.062012 7.140586
2025-07-13 0.032240 0.087308 0.220726 0.559005 1.380721 3.247152 7.750371
2025-07-20 0.031382 0.087418 0.226719 0.588632 1.488493 3.577222 8.723334
2025-07-27 0.029877 0.085605 0.227743 0.606112 1.568969 3.852602 9.596968
2025-08-03 0.027907 0.082247 0.224435 0.612217 1.622061 4.068941 10.352074
2025-08-10 0.025690 0.077867 0.217911 0.609137 1.651516 4.231291 10.991987